“Opt out” or kept out? The effect of stigma,structure, selection,and sector on the labor force participation of married women in India

Using the 61st and 68th rounds of National Sample Survey data, we investigate the role of stigma, the economy’s structure, potential selection bias, and sectoral differences in explaining the low labor force participation (LFP) of middle and secondary educated women in India relative to low‐ and high‐educated women (the “U‐shape”). Estimating LFP regressions on a sample of prime‐aged married women, we show that, controlling for background characteristics, if a woman’s husband works in a white‐collar job in a region with a high share of blue‐collar jobs, she is less likely to participate in the labor market (stigma). We also find a positive effect of an increase in an index of white‐collar job growth (structure) on married women’s LFP. These effects are present in both rural and urban sectors but are strongest in the rural sector. However, middle and secondary educated women are still found to have substantially lower LFP than low‐ and graduate‐educated women in both sectors. Indeed, over time, the U‐shape persists in the rural sector and deepens in the urban sector. Because unobservables are quite large in the urban sector, we use the method of instrumental variables and find an increasing return at middle levels but stagnation at higher levels.     

Projecting total costs and health consequences of increasing mt-sDNA utilization for colorectal cancer screening from the payer and integrated delivery network perspectives

Abstract

Aims: To evaluate total costs and health consequences of a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program with colonoscopy, fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), and expanded use of multitarget stool DNA (mt-sDNA) from the perspectives of Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs) and payers in the United States.

Materials and methods: We developed a budget impact and cost-consequence model that simulates CRC screening for eligible 50- to 75-year-old adults. A status quo scenario and an increased mt-sDNA scenario were modeled. The status quo includes the current screening mix of colonoscopy (83%), FIT (11%), and mt-sDNA (6%) modalities. The increased mt-sDNA scenario increases mt-sDNA utilization to 28% over 10 years. Costs for both the IDN and the payer perspectives incorporated diagnostic and surveillance colonoscopies, adverse events (AEs), and CRC treatment. The IDN perspective included screening program costs, composed of direct nonmedical (e.g. patient navigation) and indirect (e.g. administration) costs. It was assumed that IDNs do not incur the costs for stool-based screening tests or bowel preparation for colonoscopies.

Results: In a population of one million covered lives, the 10-year incremental cost savings incurred by increasing mt-sDNA utilization was $16.2 M for the IDN and $3.3 M for the payer. The incremental savings per-person-per-month were $0.14 and $0.03 for the IDN and payer, respectively. For both perspectives, increased diagnostic colonoscopy costs were offset by reductions in screening colonoscopies, surveillance colonoscopies, and AEs. Extending screening eligibility to 45- to 75-year-olds slightly decreased the overall cost savings.

Limitations: The natural history of CRC was not simulated; however, many of the utilized parameters were extracted from highly vetted natural history models or published literature. Direct nonmedical and indirect costs for CRC screening programs are applied on a per-person-per modality basis, whereas in reality some of these costs may be fixed.

Conclusions: Increased mt-sDNA utilization leads to fewer colonoscopies, less AEs, and lower overall costs for both IDNs and payers, reducing overall screening program costs and increasing the number of cancers detected while maintaining screening adherence rates over 10 years.     

中部崛起政策对地区产业升级的异质性影响与机制分析--基于PSM-DID方法的一项拟自然实验

国家中部崛起政策实施13年来,相关地区的经济发展和产业结构发生不同程度的变化。为进一步引导发展,需对这一政策的实施效果作整体评估和检验。基于1999-2013年我国201个地级市的面板数据,运用PSM-DID方法,从长期影响角度评估中部崛起政策实施效果。结果表明,以地区技术复杂度度量的产业结构得到了显著的提升。在此基础上考察中国式财政分权模式下政府财政行为波动对政策效果的影响,结果显示政府财政支出波动对地区产业升级会起到负面作用。进一步的机制检验表明,吸引外商直接投资、积极性政府财政政策、突破路径依赖是实现政策效果的中介变量;政策着力点主要在高技术水平的产业上;由于地区异质性的存在,部分省份产业升级并未达到预期效果。因此,制定新一轮崛起战略措施时,要因地制宜,充分考虑地区异质性,走内涵式发展道路。     

中国沿海地区经济结构变动对海洋环境的影响

中国沿海经济结构的研究对海洋环境的发展意义重大,然而二者之间的定量关系及内在机理尚不完全清楚。以2007-2016年为研究时段,我国沿海11省(区、市)为研究区域,借助固定效应以及门槛模型,测度经济结构变动与海洋环境之间的关系。结果表明:①在经济结构中产业结构(-0.099)对海洋的弹性系数最大,其次是经济增速(-0.058),投资对象为正向影响,但不显著;非经济结构中,技术进步(0.052)的弹性系数最大,其中环境规制(-0.045)、人口规模(-0.045)抑制海洋环境的改善。②区域对比北部、东部海洋经济圈产业结构对海洋环境起抑制作用,另外,东部海洋经济圈环境规制、人口规模与海洋环境水平呈明显的负相关性;南部海洋经济圈相对于其他两个区域,结果不显著。③将产业结构、技术进步作为门槛变量,在各自的作用下分别存在双重门槛和单一门槛。产业结构门槛值为0.533、0.462,仅河北,福建未跨越第二门槛;科研能力门槛值为40,仅河北、福建、海南未跨过门槛值。因此,应适度调整产业结构,注重经济增长的质量,合理控制城镇人口的流动,积极鼓励科研创新,实现经济与海洋环境协调发展。     

IPO制度改革、盈余管理与IPO定价效率

以1993~2015年我国A股IPO公司为样本，检验了我国资本市场IPO制度的渐进式改革对IPO定价效率的作用，并进一步研究了盈余管理在两者作用过程中的中介作用。研究结果发现，除额度管理到指标管理阶段改革没有对IPO定价效率产生显著影响外，其他各阶段改革均有效提高了短窗口期的IPO定价效率，并且IPO公司的盈余管理在这一过程中起到了显著的中介作用。此外，进一步研究还发现IPO制度改革降低了中长期窗口的IPO定价效率，并且IPO制度改革在不同市场化程度的地区和牛熊市期间对IPO定价效率的作用并不相同。研究结论为IPO注册制改革过程中加强对IPO公司盈余管理的监管提供了参考依据。     

财政压力、地方政府行为与环境污染

地方政府是生态环境治理的关键主体，财政压力以地方政府行为作为传导变量，对环境污染及其治理效果有深刻影响。实证检验地方政府行为的促污和治污效应对财政压力冲击的响应。结果表明：激励生产型地方政府行为促进污染增加，在财政压力下促进污染增加效应的激化，即压力越大越污染。环境治理型地方政府行为中的环境保护支出对污染治理有效，财政压力对其治污效应有提升作用；排污费征收不治污、反促污，财政高压使其促污效应强化。在财政增支减收、压力不断攀升的背景下，可从治理体制性财政压力诱因、强化对地方政府行为监督和约束以及优化治理工具提升环境治理绩效等方面来平抑财政压力通过地方政府行为引发的环境污染加剧。     

生产性服务业集聚与全球价值链地位攀升

结合中国工业企业数据和城市经济数据，运用工具变量回归从专业化和多样化层面探讨中国生产性服务业集聚对制造业全球价值链地位的影响。研究发现，从整体上看，不论是专业化还是多样化，生产性服务业集聚均能够显著提升中国制造业的全球价值链地位。分样本检验显示，生产性服务业集聚对全球价值链地位的提升作用主要存在于沿海省份、资本和技术密集型行业以及中小企业。在作用机制方面，生产性服务业专业化集聚主要通过提高创新水平和推动全要素生产率促进全球价值链地位的提升，而多样化集聚则通过加快要素流动和推动全要素生产率来提升全球价值链地位。     

外资进入影响行业工资差距的路径与异质性研究——来自中国服务业的经验证据

外商直接投资（FDI）可以通过劳动力需求效应和技术溢出效应改变东道国的劳动力就业结构和行业相对劳动生产率，进而影响行业工资差距，并且这种影响具有不确定性；由于投资动机和进入方式的不同，FDI对行业工资差距的影响具有异质性并表现为地区差异。基于中国服务业的经验分析发现：外资进入通过增加低工资行业的相对就业规模和提升高工资行业的相对劳动生产率扩大了行业工资差距，适应中国低技能劳动力丰裕而高技能劳动力相对稀缺的劳动力市场条件；在以垂直型和合资型FDI为主的地区外资进入具有显著的扩大行业工资差距效应，而在以水平型和独资型FDI为主的地区这一影响并不明显。因此，应努力提高劳动力人力资本水平并充分保障低技能劳动力的权益，积极鼓励和引导水平型FDI进入并适度减少垂直型FDI的引入，持续增强企业的技术吸收能力并不断缩小技术差距，进而在高效利用外资的同时缩小行业工资差距。     

中国省域入境旅游发展的空间计量建模与影响因素效应研究

空间计量模型在旅游研究中已得到有效应用,解决了旅游产业发展中的一些实际问题,但还需进一步改进与完善。文章以中国省域入境旅游发展为着眼点,增设扩散转移矩阵为模型因变量滞后的空间权重矩阵,以反映入境旅游在中国省域之间的客流人数扩散转移实际情况,同时从最为全面的广义嵌套空间模型入手,引入旅游研究空间计量模型系统,并以区域入境旅游发展影响因素为模型自变量,构建了入境旅游发展的最优空间计量模型,最后对模型显著自变量的直接效应、溢出效应、总效应进行评估分析,给出区域入境旅游发展建议。结果显示:模型自变量出现显著消极效应的影响因素几乎为酒店供应,加强旅游资源建设和经济水平发展始终是入境旅游发展的重要途径,而开放程度已对东部省域的影响较为微弱,对中部和西部省域则起到很好的积极效应,同时交通设施在中部省域呈现出非常强劲的溢出效应。     

The determinants of employers’ use of temporary contracts in the frictional labor market

This paper focuses on the following two primary reasons that employers use temporary contracts: to flexibly adjust employment and to screen workers. A search-matching framework is used to not only address employers’ endogenous choices in using temporary contracts, but also numerically identify the situations in which these contracts are likely to be used as a screening tool for permanent positions. This numerical exercise demonstrates that reducing employment protections in permanent jobs, reducing benefits for unemployed workers and raising the conversion probability from temporary to permanent employment will increase the relative proportion of employers who use temporary contracts as a screening device.